Best bets this week 7/22 - 7/25
Here are my picks throughout the week as the WNBA returns on Tuesday from the All-Star break. Picks will be updated throughout the week as lines change and if any major injuries occur. (last updated 8:00 AM PST 7/25)
WNBA
Friday 7/25
Aces(+320) @ Lynx(-526)
Spread Lynx -9.5
Total Points 161.5
The Aces have no offensive identity outside of their best player and struggled to score in key moment against the fever. The Lynx have been more dominant and consistant on defense this year.
My prediction: Lynx defense overwhelms struggling Aces. I think Aces can cover the spread but will lose.
Pick : Lynx ML and Over 161.5
Result: Win
Mercury vs Liberty
Mercury(+210) @ Liberty(-313)
Spread Liberty -6.5
Total Points 171
The Mercury have lost 2 in a row to solid teams. Its tempting to give them the win here. If only they weren’t playing the Liberty with Ionescu and Stewart playing at the top of their game. Along with Jones back in the lineup for them.
My prediction: Mercury can win but I will play it safe on go Mercury cover
Pick : Mercury +6.5
Result: Loss
Wings vs Valkyrie
Wings(+135) @ Valkyrie(-189)
Spread Valkyrie -4
Total Points 162.3
The Wings came out hot from the break with a huge blowout win against the Storm. The Storm seemed to have bounced back after their abysmal showing so it seems like the Wings are the next aspect to return to form if we are counting that game as an anomaly. Valkyrie are an elite defense who can compete with any team on any night while the Wings are in the early stages of a rebuild
My prediction: Wings come back to earth shooting wise and defensively up against a good Valkyrie team.
Pick : Valkyrie -4 (I would even add points to make Valkyrie -6)
Result: Win
Thursday 7/24
Sparks(-286) @ Sun (+193)
Spread Sparks -6
Total Points 169
The Sparks came out of the break with a very impressive win against the Mystics. Their defense was impressive and their offense was consistant throughout the whole game.
My prediction: The sun are awful this year and ready for the offseason. Sparks are hoping to push for a playoff spot. Give me the sports in a blowout
Pick : Sparks - 6
Result: Win
Storm(-526) @ Sky (+314)
Spread Storm -9.5
Total Points 164.5
The Storm couldn’t do anything to score points in their last game against the Wings in an embarrassing loss. Maybe the void left by Skylar Diggins Smith absence was the reason but they need to have a better showing today against a very beatable team. The Sky are a fun team to watch with their combination of size and passing. However the Sky come into this one very banged up from injuries.
My prediction: Angel Reese is questionable to play and my guess would be she sits. With Atkins already out for the Sky this game should be an easy win for the Storm. The Storm need a bounce back win to reset emotions after their last loss. Give me Storm -9.5.
Pick : Storm - 9.5
Result: Win
Aces(-143) @ Fever(+103)
Spread Aces -2
Total Points 164.5
This is an exciting game and potentially the matchup of the week. Caitlin Clark continues to sit due to injury but this Fever team is no slouch when it plays without her. Their defensive intensity is impressive and they do have the ability to get hot on offense. The Aces won their last game but I continue to be down on them until the can show they are a consistently well performing team across the board and not just relying on A’ja Wilson Iso ball.
My prediction: The Fever already beat the Aces with no Clark this year. I think Fever put up a great fight and sneak out a win here.
Pick : Fever ML
Result:
Wednesday 7/23
Dream(+215) @ Mercury (-323)
Spread Mercury -7
Total Points 163
The Dream are coming off of a tough loss to the Aces on a back to back while the Mercury come into their first game post All-Star. Ryhne Howard continues to be out for the Dream while Monique Akoa Makani sits for the Mercury. The safest bet is to go Mercury win here but I have a feeling the Dream will be scrappy enough to cover a generous spread.
My prediction: Dream come in looking for a bounce back win to course correct their season while the Mercury are still learning how to utilize their full roster who has just become healthy.
Pick : Dream + 7
Result: Win
Tuesday 7/22
Sparks(+130) @ Mystics (-182)
Spread Mystics -3 1/2
Total Points 168
The Sparks just beat this Mystics team 80-99 a week ago and will be looking to continue their 2 game win streak in an attempt to turn their season around. The Sparks despite being loaded with talent in their starting lineup they have just not found any consistency from their bench this season. If Hamby, Plum, Jackson, and Stevens are all not scoring in double figures the Sparks will have issues keeping up with opponents. Mystics on the other hand sit right in the middle of the standings. I think a few days of rest from the All-Star break will greatly help this Mystics team, mixed with veteran and rookie talent, regroup and make a push to climb the standings in the second half of the season.
My prediction: The Mystics talent steps up off of the rest while their bench and young talent bolster the scoring burden to win this one decisively against the Sparks
Pick : Mystic - 3 1/2
Result: Loss
Fever(+375) @ Liberty (-667)
Spread Liberty -11
Total Points 163.5
My prediction: Fever have played impressively well on defense without Caitlin Clark this season. Aaliyah Boston has struggled in her absence but with no big defensive presence for the Liberty in the paint Boston could get going. Liberty will be fresh and ready to put up high volume points but they can be streaky at times. Fever have the scoring and defense to not get blown out here and cover a large spread.
Pick : Fever + 11
Result: Loss
Sky(+558) @ Lynx (-1250)
Spread Lynx -15.5
Total Points 159.5
My prediction: Sky have been below average this season but Angel Reese has been playing really well. I don’t think the Sky have enough to compete with this Lynx team riding a high off of All-Star weekend where they put on a show on and off the court. This one could get out of hand as I expect the Lynx to come out firing on all cylinders. Lynx win big
Pick : Lynx -15.5 & Over 159.5
Result: Win
Dream(-105) @ Aces (-116)
Spread Aces -1
Total Points 161.5
My prediction: This is the toughest game to pick today and Vegas agrees by the look of the odds. I have been down on the Aces all season and feel good about the scoring and length the Dream have to their advantage in this one. The only way the Aces pull this win out is if NaLyssa Smith has a huge game alongside A’ja. Give me the Dream to win.
Pick : Dream ML & Over 161.5
Result: Loss
Wings(+292) @ Storm (-476)
Spread Storm -8.5
Total Points 165
My prediction: Storm are playing great this year led by veteran talent while the Wings have been awful as a team all season. Paige Bueckers isn’t enough to keep this Wings team in the game. 8.5 feels generous here, I believe Storm win in a blowout.
Pick : Storm -8.5
Result: Loss
